Live demo

How the demo is built

2 companies, neither of them real. Every number in the demo comes from a seeded model of a business, run day by day and calibrated to published benchmarks. None of it is a real company's data.

What you are looking at

Sandbar is a sleep and wind-down app on iOS, with monthly and annual plans and a 7-day trial. Kelpline is a shared inbox for support teams, product-led and sold per seat. Both are invented, and so are their people, their notes and their investor updates.

The vendor names on the spend lines are tools a company like these would pay for. The amounts are simulated.

How the numbers are made

The model starts in each company's first month, January 2024 for Sandbar and January 2023 for Kelpline. It runs forward a month at a time, and a day at a time for usage and cash.

Sandbar

  • Installs by channel: organic, paid social and creators, with a paid campaign that spikes and then fades.
  • Trials, then paid members, then renewals, refunds and churn, each by plan.
  • MRR as members times price. Apple pays the proceeds into the bank about 5 weeks after the month ends.
  • Daily actives from members and recent installs, lower on Fridays, Saturdays and holidays such as Christmas, higher on New Year's Day.
  • Costs: payroll, a hire, software seats, annual invoices, ads, and AI usage that grows with users.
  • Cash in the bank, day by day.

Kelpline

  • Visitors, then free signups, then activated teams.
  • Product-qualified leads, then new paying workspaces over that month and the next 3.
  • Seats that grow as each customer's team grows, and churn that is higher in a customer's first 3 months.
  • MRR, net and gross revenue retention, and collections through Stripe, some of them paid a year ahead.

The randomness comes from a fixed seed, so the same day always gives the same history. Each day the model runs once more and adds the day, week or month that just closed.

A figure that a real source would still be settling keeps changing for a while. Trial to paid rises for a few weeks after a month ends, as that month's trials finish. Those months are marked as still maturing.

Why the numbers are uneven

Real numbers are lumpy, so these are too.

  • Some months go down. Sandbar's installs fell from the month before in 4 of the 12 months of 2025.
  • April 2026 was a bad month for Sandbar. A crash in version 3.4 cut installs, paid social spend and trials.
  • Sandbar raised its annual price from $49.99 to $59.99 on 1 March 2026. Revenue per member moves with the mix of plans, not in a straight line.
  • Spend jumps when an annual invoice lands, when a campaign runs, and in March 2026, when Sandbar made a hire and paid a recruiter.
  • Kelpline's logo churn rose from June 2026, after a competitor launched a free tier.
  • Revenue in the books and MRR agree only roughly. Refunds, fees, currency and timing sit between them, as they do in a real company.
  • One connector, Meta Ads, is scripted to fail, so its figures are days late and you can see what a stale source looks like.

What the model is calibrated to

Some of Sandbar's rates sit near the benchmark median and some sit well above it. Each source below is followed by what the demo shows, averaged over the months it publishes, January 2025 to August 2026.

RevenueCat, State of Subscription Apps 2026, Health and Fitness

Medians: download to trial 6.9%, trial to paid 37.7% (top quartile above 51.4%), download to paid by day 35 2.9% (top quartile above 6.2%), revenue per install by day 60 $0.66, first-year revenue per payer $35.64.

In the demo. Trial to paid 35.1%, near the median. Install to trial 13.6%, about twice the median. Install to paid 6.0%, close to the top quartile. Revenue per install by day 60 $2.19, more than 3 times the median. First-year revenue per payer $43.90, above the median, because about half of its payers pay for a year up front.

RevenueCat, State of Subscription Apps 2026, paywalls

Across all categories, apps with a hard paywall convert a median 10.7% of downloads to paid by day 35. Freemium apps convert 2.1%.

In the demo. This is why Sandbar sits above the Health and Fitness median. It asks every new user to start a trial, at first launch until March 2026 and after the first night since. It still keeps a free mode, so we set it between the two medians, not at the hard paywall one. More payers per install also means more revenue per install.

Adapty, subscription benchmarks

Across all categories, 59.2% of subscribers renew the first time, then 45.1%, 37.1% and 31.6% of the starting group. In Health and Fitness, annual plans grew from 51% to 61% of revenue.

In the demo. 58.2% of monthly members renew the first time. In the model, 45%, 37% and 32% of the starting group renew after that. Annual plans bring 59.6% of its revenue. Both are near the benchmark.

AppTweak, Health and Fitness seasonality, US App Store 2020 to 2021

In its October 2020 to October 2021 US App Store sample, downloads rose around Christmas and the New Year and reached a low at the end of summer.

In the demo. The model gives Sandbar's organic installs a January peak and a late-summer low. Sandbar grows about 4% a month, and that outweighs the season. Of the published months, installs are highest in January 2026 and lowest in February 2025. Within 2026 the low is April, the month of the crash.

Adjust, health and fitness installs and retention

January 2023 installs 34% above the first-half average. Day 1 retention 23% and day 7 12% in the first quarter of 2023.

In the demo. Day 1 retention 34.2% and day 7 18.7%, above these figures. We set them and did not fit them to Adjust.

Business of Apps, cost per install

$2.50 to $5.00 per install in North America, $1.00 to $3.00 on Facebook.

In the demo. Sandbar pays $2.40 to $3.64 per paid social install, $2.94 on average. Its average is inside the North America range, though its lowest month is below it. Its monthly cost is above the Facebook range in 8 of the 20 months.

Apple, App Store Connect Help

Proceeds are paid within 45 days of the end of Apple's fiscal month. 15% commission in the Small Business Program.

In the demo. Sandbar is paid 85% of its sales about 5 weeks after each month ends.

ProductLed, product-led growth benchmarks

9% of free accounts convert to paid. Product-qualified leads convert 25% of the time on average, and 30% at $1,000 to $5,000 a year.

In the demo. Kelpline: free to paid 9.9%, near the benchmark. In the model, 18% of its product-qualified leads become paying teams, below it.

PitchBook-NVCA Venture Monitor, first quarter of 2026

Median seed deal value $3.0M. Median time between rounds 1.8 years for companies outside AI.

In the demo. Sandbar raised its seed in February 2025. The model schedules a $3.0M seed extension for 16 February 2027, 2 years later. Without it, Sandbar's cash would fall under 6 months of runway in late 2027. Kelpline needs no new round: its cash stays above $2.6M and it reaches break-even during 2028.

What we chose

  • We wrote the events: the price change, the bad month, the hire, the campaigns and the competitor.
  • We scheduled one event that has not happened yet: Sandbar's $3.0M seed extension on 16 February 2027. It is in the model now and shows in the cash, and in the legal bill in the books, when that day comes.
  • We set the goals and their targets and wrote the notes, as a founder would. We did not set them so that every goal reads on track.
  • We tried 20 seeds for Sandbar's randomness and kept one where the target picks offer 3 different options on the main metrics and trial to paid falls over the summer. We did not keep the best-looking numbers.
  • Nothing the model outputs is edited afterwards, with 2 scripted exceptions that are there to fire alerts. Yesterday's AI spend on one key or service is raised to 6 to 8 times its normal day, and each demo has one first payment to a new AI vendor.

What is the same as your workspace

The checks, freshness rules, goal grading, target picks, alerts and investor update are the product's own. They run on the simulated figures exactly as they would on yours.

Open the demo and inspect any number

Sandbar and Kelpline open in the app as a guest. Nothing is saved.